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|General Paul-Albert Scherer, former chief of West German military intelligence, briefing Washington correspondents on developments in the Soviet Union.|
Oct. 20 (EIRNS) - At a packed press briefing at the National Press Club on Wednesday, October 18, General Paul Albert Scherer, former head of Military Intelligence and Counter-intelligence of the West German Defense Forces, dropped a bombshell in the glasnost-saturated climate of Washington.
"If Gorbachev and his group are able to survive into the summer of 1990, they will then be ousted - in one way or another," said General Scherer to a somewhat surprised room full of people including representatives from 11 embassies, the Commerce Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the National Defense University, as well as representatives of the U.S. and international press. The press conference was filmed by the Christian Broadcasting Network.
Scherer said that although he knew it was somewhat unusual that the former head of an intelligence agency like himself should become such a public figure, he felt that he had a responsibility to change a situation which was heading toward disaster.
"It is the case," said Scherer, "that if you know more you have an obligation, and if you don't carry that, you're guilty."
General Scherer recalled how earlier in April, at a similar press conference at the National Press Club he had predicted that the Soviet Union was heading toward conditions of civil war, a prediction which has been more than corroborated by events in the Soviet Union.
"In April, I had said that there would be a reign of blood in the East bloc but some people didn't want to believe it at the time. Today I would say that the reign of blood is going to be substantially more severe."
This growing opposition could create an explosive situation for the Gorbachev group in the face of the growing social and economic crisis. The food supply, Scherer warned, is totally insufficient, now worse than 1953. Sugar has been rationed, wages have been cut, by as much as 25% in some factories. The mass emigration from East Germany, Scherer described as a "thunderbolt for the Kremlin". By Christmas General Scherer predicted railroad strikes in the Soviet Union leading to even greater chaos.
In the aftermath of the overthrow of Gorbachev, either by assassination, coup d'etat, or insurrection, Scherer sees the possibility of a takeover by orthodox Communists either implementing a "Peking solution", or possibly a military flight forward, most likely directed towards Western Europe, or a takeover by more radical, hard-handed reformers with Great Russian chauvinist and fascist overtones, aiming at getting the United States out of Europe by continued diplomatic chicanery a la Gorbachev.